As Indonesia faces the prospect of El Nino lasting into early 2027, what is being tested is not only the agricultural sector, but the country’s ability to protect a foundation of food security.
Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) Chief Teuku Faisal Fathani has warned that El Nino could intensify and bring a drier, longer dry season across parts of Indonesia. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could further amplify the rainfall deficit from September through December 2026.
As of mid-July, 509 seasonal zones, or about 54.5 percent of Indonesia’s land area, had entered the dry season. BMKG expects the season to peak in August and September, with hundreds of seasonal zones facing longer-than-normal dry periods.
Retno Marsudi, the United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Water, has described climate change as a threat multiplier that worsens challenges facing water resources. Her warning underscores why water management is becoming central to Indonesia’s climate resilience.
Agricultural development has traditionally relied on land, seeds, fertilizer, technology and irrigation. Climate change, however, is shifting the focus from simply producing more food to maintaining production amid growing drought and extreme-weather risks.
Water management is therefore becoming increasingly strategic. It determines whether other production inputs can be used effectively and whether cultivation can continue from one season to the next.
Retno has also stressed that water is not merely a technical or sectoral issue, but a development and political issue connecting agriculture, energy, health, industry and the wider economy.
Water security
The government has made securing water supplies a central strategy for maintaining national food production.
Through the Directorate General of Agricultural Land and Irrigation, the Ministry of Agriculture is preparing about 15,000 pumping irrigation units, 3,000 piped irrigation units and 3,000 water conservation structures, focusing on rice production centers and drought-prone areas.
The government is also mapping groundwater basins, surface water sources, irrigated rice fields and drought-prone areas to ensure interventions reach areas most in need.
Agriculture Ministry Secretary of the Directorate General of Agricultural Land and Irrigation Dhani Gartina said the water infrastructure is intended to increase the cropping index, particularly on rain-fed farmland that can often only be planted once a year.
The strategy is reinforced by a water-pumping program. In 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture is preparing 56,000 water pumps for rice fields with access to rivers, reservoirs, dams and irrigation canals.
Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman has described pumping as a rapid solution to maintain water supplies and production during the dry season.
From a policy perspective, water security is not always a question of whether water exists. Often, the challenge is delivering available water to farmland at the right time.
Dams, reservoirs, irrigation networks and conservation structures increase water-storage capacity, while pumping systems help farmers use available water when and where it is needed.
Sustainable water
Water security ultimately depends on more than infrastructure. It also requires protecting the resources themselves.
Retno has argued that sustainable water management should be viewed as an investment in the future rather than an additional burden. For agriculture, this means improving efficiency so more food can be produced with fewer resources.
The need is significant. Agriculture accounts for about 72 percent of global freshwater use, making water management directly relevant to food security.
Irrigation, reservoirs and pumping systems will be more effective if accompanied by watershed protection, land conservation and more efficient water use.
Without sustainable management, climate change could reduce future water availability even as infrastructure capacity expands. El Nino is only one manifestation of a broader challenge involving longer dry periods and potentially more frequent extreme weather.
Under those conditions, food security can no longer be measured solely by annual production. A more meaningful measure is whether production can be sustained when climate conditions are far from ideal.
Retno has also emphasized the importance of reliable water data, including available supplies, aggregate needs for food production and fluctuations in availability. Accurate information can support better planning for food production resilient to climate change and drought.
The government’s combination of water infrastructure, conservation, pumping, drought-risk mapping, drought-resistant crop varieties and agricultural risk management points toward a more climate-adaptive food strategy.
Economic foundation
The link between water and the economy runs through a simple but critical channel: food.
Retno has described water as a connector and enabler for multiple sectors. For Indonesia, that connection runs from water resources to food supplies, household welfare and economic stability.
When reliable water supplies keep agricultural production going, food supplies become more secure. Conversely, disruption to water resources can constrain production, reduce supplies and increase price volatility for strategic commodities.
This matters because household consumption remains the main driver of Indonesia’s economy, accounting for more than half of gross domestic product (GDP).
More reliable food supplies can therefore support economic stability, while stronger water management can improve the economy’s ability to absorb climate-related disruptions.
The economic case for water investment extends beyond agriculture. Retno has cited a World Bank study estimating that every US$1 invested in water can generate about US$6.8 in economic returns through higher productivity, lower health costs and greater social stability.
That perspective suggests spending on water infrastructure and management should not be viewed merely as a cost. It can strengthen economic resilience while supporting food security and public welfare.
Almost all of the government’s current measures converge on one objective: ensuring water remains available when rainfall declines.
The key lesson from the latest El Nino threat is that food security does not begin at harvest. It begins much earlier, with preparedness to manage water resources before and during periods of reduced rainfall.
Indonesia’s ability to maintain water supplies will determine how effectively agriculture can adapt when weather patterns change and dry periods become longer.
The challenge ahead is therefore not simply to increase food production, but to ensure production systems continue operating in an increasingly uncertain climate.
Strengthening water infrastructure needs to go hand in hand with watershed conservation, efficient water use and sustainable management of water resources.
Water is consequently more than an agricultural necessity. It is the foundation connecting food security, economic stability and Indonesia’s ability to adapt to climate change.
The stronger Indonesia’s water security, the greater its prospects for sustaining food production and strengthening national resilience in the years ahead.
*Martha Herlinawati Simanjuntak is a journalist at the ANTARA News Agency
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the ANTARA News Agency.
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