"In 2050, the seawater will not touch the Monas area. There will be several areas affected but not all areas of Jakarta," he forecast at the National Prof Talk Webinar on the sinking of the Jakarta and Jakarta Northern Coastal Highway (Pantura), accessed from here on Wednesday.
Looking at the factor of sea-level rise, in 2050, the sea level will rise, but will not touch the Monas area, which means Jakarta will not drown, he projected.
Based on the projected results, in 2050, the rise in the sea level will flood an area of approximately 160.4 square kilometers in Jakarta or 24.3 percent of its total area, he said. Sea water will enters areas including Tanjung Priok, Pluit, Pademangan, Kapuk, and Penjaringan, he predicted.
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Another dangerous factor is land subsidence, especially in areas with soft soils, not only in Jakarta but along the northern coast, Hermawan said. Land subsidence will increase the risk of more seawater entering the land, he added.
"If it is only based on the sea level rise, it will not have a serious impact," he said.
Meanwhile, BRIN Research Professor of Geotechnology and Hydrogeology, Robert Delinom, said there is indeed a potential for Jakarta to sink, but not in the near future.
"Jakarta and Pantura could sink, but not in an immediate period of time, so maybe it will be a long time. Maybe in the near 30 years, the sea level will go up about 2 meters," Delinom predicted.
Jakarta is not sinking at this time nor will it in the near future, but the potential will still be there, he said. It will require comprehensive mitigation and adaptation efforts with joint synergies, as well as innovations, to prevent land subsidence, he added.
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Translator: Martha H S, Resinta S
Editor: Suharto
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