The Madden–Julian Oscillation or MJO phenomenon is forecast to start becoming active again in the western region of Indonesia, BMKG’s Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto said.
"In addition, the Asian Monsoon is currently active with the identification of cross-equatorial flows. Then, wind slowdowns and wind bends have also formed around Indonesia," he informed in Jakarta on Saturday.
Based on the BMKG’s observations, tropical cyclone 94S has been observed in the Indian Ocean southwest of Lampung, with maximum wind speeds of 37 kilometers per hour and minimum air pressure of 1005.0 millibars.
While the seeds of tropical cyclone 90B have been seen in the Indian Ocean west of Aceh, with maximum wind speeds of 37 kilometers per hour and minimum air pressure of 1006.0 millibars, he added.
The potential of the two tropical cyclone seeds growing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low, he informed.
"These conditions can contribute to an increase in the growth of rain clouds and the potential for significant weather (events) in the next week," Guswanto said.
Based on impact-based forecasts, areas that have the potential for heavy rain in the period from January 28–30, 2023, are parts of Aceh, West Sumatra, Bengkulu, Riau Islands, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, South Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi.
Meanwhile, there is potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in almost all regions from January 28 to February 2, he added.
From January 28 to February 1, there is potential for high waves in Indonesian waters, with the wave height forecast to reach 2.5 meters to more than 6 meters. There is also potential for extreme sea waves with wave heights of above 6 meters in the North Natuna Sea.
BMKG has asked various parties to make preparations to deal with the weather forecast for the next week, including ensuring infrastructure capacity and water resource management systems to anticipate increased rainfall and carrying out environmental management by not littering and not cutting slopes or trees uncontrollably.
In addition, Guswanto urged the concerned agencies to carry out a massive reforestation program, cut fragile tree branches, and strengthen stands or poles to prevent them from collapsing in strong winds.
The BMKG is also aiming to intensify socialization, education, and literacy on a more massive scale to increase the understanding and concern of local governments, communities, and related parties on preventing and reducing the risks of hydrometeorological disasters.
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Translator: Sugiharto Purnama, Resinta S
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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