"The oil price may be a bit difficult to predict," the minister said during a hearing with members of the House of Representatives here on Monday.
The price will be hard to predict because different international agencies have issued different projections regarding oil prices, she explained.
In May 2023, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that the price of oil, such as Brent, will reach about US$74.5 per barrel in 2024, she informed.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg predicted the price will reach US$86 per barrel, she added.
Moreover, in April 2023, the World Bank projected that oil prices would be capped at US$86 per barrel, Indrawati pointed out.
Minister Indrawati highlighted that Indonesian crude price is predicted to be in the range of US$75 to $85 per barrel in 2024. It will not be much different from the oil price projection for 2023, which is in the range of US$80 to US$85 per barrel, she noted.
She explained that the high price of oil has led some people to think that the global economy would not improve anytime soon, hence demand and production have been impacted.
Even members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), such as Saudi Arabia, are planning to slash production due to a decline in demand, which has resulted from the worsening global economy, she pointed out.
"This shows that we hope that oil price possibly will still be maintained in the range of US$75 to $85 per barrel, as we have said in Macro Economy Policy and Fiscal Policies of 2024 State Budget (event)," the minister explained.
She also highlighted that the price of coal, which is still one of the top export commodities, has been predicted to decline to US$200 per metric ton in 2023, and US$155 per metric ton in 2024. Moreover, crude palm oil is predicted to be capped at US$1,020 in 2024.
"This is something we maintain because, to be honest, the commodity impacts the state budget greatly, whether it is in terms of taxes, customs, or non-taxes revenue," she added.
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Translator: Imamatul Silfia, Mecca Yumna
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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