A forecast has practical value only if it changes what governments, businesses, and communities do before a hazard peaks. The longer action is delayed, the fewer choices remain.
The urgency is clear. The United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target estimates that current policies put the world on a path toward 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming this century.
Even with full implementation of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, warming is projected at 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius. UNEP also warns that the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold is likely to be exceeded in the coming decade.
Recent events show how climate risks can spread beyond the weather sector. Heatwaves and water constraints in France have affected nuclear power operations that depend on water for cooling.
Low water levels on Germany's Rhine have disrupted shipping, while water shortages have prompted the Panama Canal to restrict daily vessel transits.
Water stress can affect energy, transport, industry, trade, and public services. The earlier a risk is identified, the greater the room for preventive action.
For Indonesia, that principle is especially relevant as El Nino strengthens in 2026.
Reading the signals
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provides a clear example of why lead time matters.
In June, WMO estimated an 80 percent chance of El Nino during June-August 2026, while the probability of it continuing through at least November was near or above 90 percent.
On July 31, WMO reported that a strong El Nino was developing and expected to strengthen during August-October.
By September 3, it reported that El Nino was firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event, with the probability of persistence through February 2027 approaching 100 percent.
The sequence shows how climate information can become more certain while governments still have time to prepare.
WMO has emphasized that reliable forecasts give governments, businesses, humanitarian agencies, and communities valuable time to act. But a global forecast is only a starting point.
The strength of El Nino alone does not determine impacts in a particular location, which vary by region, season, and other climate drivers.
Global signals therefore need to be translated into local information that authorities and communities can use to decide what to do, when to act, and where resources should go.
Indonesia is not starting from zero. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) provides information on El Nino and drier conditions to support preparedness for forest and land fires, water management, agriculture, and vulnerable communities.
A warning tells people what may happen. Anticipation determines what to do before it happens. That requires information to move quickly into decisions and resources.
On September 1, the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance at the Ministry of Finance, together with the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), launched the Adaptive Regional Integrated System for Fiscal Resilience (ARISE).
The system links hazard information with exposure, vulnerability, potential economic losses, and fiscal impacts, helping local governments anticipate the financial consequences of disasters.
Forecast-based financing applies the same principle by using forecasts and risk indicators to trigger funding before impacts occur.
From warning to action
An effective anticipatory system needs more than accurate forecasts. It needs clear risk thresholds, decision-making authority, accessible financing, prepared measures, and communities capable of responding.
If any link is delayed, the lead time provided by a forecast begins to disappear.
Deputy for Prevention at the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) Abdul Muhari has described this as response latency, when communities begin evacuating only after a disaster's impacts have started. Ideally, evacuation should peak before casualties do.
The same principle applies beyond evacuation. Farmers need time to adjust production, water managers to secure supplies, and authorities to strengthen fire prevention and public services.
Vulnerable households may need financial or social protection before they can act.
Receiving a warning does not automatically mean having the ability to stop working, move assets, or absorb lost income. An effective anticipatory system must therefore consider not only what hazard is coming, but who can realistically respond.
Forecast uncertainty should not become a reason to wait until impacts become visible. Governments can set risk thresholds that trigger predefined actions, using available information to reduce avoidable losses rather than waiting for perfect certainty.
Indonesia already has many of the necessary building blocks. Stronger forecasts can extend lead time, early-warning systems can improve communication, and fiscal and social-protection tools can help turn warnings into action.
Early action, however, must complement longer-term climate policy. Adaptation is essential to manage drought, heat, floods, and water stress, while emissions must continue to fall because adaptation alone cannot prevent future warming.
The climate crisis is not simply a test of whether risks can be identified. It is a test of whether information can be turned into action before its practical value is lost.
For Indonesia, the priority is to connect forecasts, early warnings, risk reduction, adaptation, and financing so that knowing what may come leads to deciding what to do - and doing it in time.
*Martha Herlinawati Simanjuntak is a journalist at the ANTARA News Agency
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the ANTARA News Agency.
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