"The growth is projected at 6.5 percent which is higher that the assumption in the 2011 budget because improving world economic growth and trade volume would boost exports and investment in the country," deputy minister of finance Anny Ratnawati said at a meeting with House Commission XI here on Wednesday.
She said the government would also change several macro-assumptions such as inflation from 5.3 percent to 6.0 percent, rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar from Rp9,250 to Rp8,800 and the rate for three-month SPN (treasury securities) from 6.5 percent to 5.6 percent.
She said the ICP (Indonesia crude price) would also be revised from US$80 per barrel to US$95 while oil lifting from 970,000 to 945,000 barrels a day.
She said the change in assumptions was made due to increasing prices of international commodities that would raise the rate of inflation in the world including Indonesia.
"The rupiah exchange rate also tends to rise in the first semester due to positive balance of payment performance," she said.
Anny said by the end of 2011 it is predicted public consumption would grow five percent, investment 9.5 percent, exports 14.1 percent and imports 17.3 percent.
She said several sectors recorded growth which was higher than earlier predicted for the national budget such as processing industries as a result of increasing exports.
She said the transportation and telecommunications sectors also grew driven by increasing use of cellphones and internet services and the number of air passengers.
"The processing industries grew 4.9 percent which is higher that the early assumption of 4.5 percent and so did transportation and telecommunications sectors which grew 13.3 percent compared to earlier assumption of 12.9 percent," she said.
She said the increasing price of oil in 2011 would also boost the mining sector while forecast that the weather has come to normal as well as various other policies for improving agricultural productivity are expected to increase growth in the sector.
"So the 2011 gross domestic growth projection will be the highest since the crisis in 1997/1998," she said.
Bank Indonesian governor Darmin Nasution meanwhile said the economic growth in 2011 could still be driven higher to 6.6 percent because the climate conditions are not too extreme while economic atmosphere is improving.
"Our economic growth does change much. We saw economic growth could still reach 6.6 percent so that it is still too conservative if it is set at only 6.5 percent. It can reach 6.6 percent if we would push it," he said.
(SYS/H-YH/F001)
Editor: Suryanto
Copyright © ANTARA 2011
