"How high the parliamentary threshold will be depends upon the orientation of the Democrat Party," the observer, Burhanuddin Muhtadi from the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) said by phone here on Thursday when asked to comment on the issue.
He said the six medium-sized political party factions in the DPR namely factions of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National Awakening Party (PKB), the United Development Party (PPP), the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People`s Conscience Party (Hanura) would only collect less than 50 percent of total votes in the DPR and so if voting is done they will lose.
Two other big party factions namely the Golkar Party faction and the Indonesia Democratic Party Struggle (PDIP) faction also would not collect up to 50 percent votes so that they would also fail if voting is to be done, he said.
"Under such conditions the Democrat Party would therefore become the determinant factor," he said.
The lecturer of social and political science of state Jakarta Islamic University (UIN) said the six medium party factions had proposed a three percent threshold while the two big party factions five percent.
He said he believed the Democrat Party`s threshold proposal would be accepted. "The figure would be a moderate one between five and three percent," he added.
Burhanudin said the Democrat Party might propose four percent upon consideration that if the Democrat Party faction follows Golkar or PDIP it would hurt medium parties.
The Democrat Party has so far been the coordinator of coalition of parties supporting the government and therefore it has to also take the parties into account.
The second reason is, he said, if the Democrat Party follows Golkar and PDIP it would benefit the two parties.
"A five percent threshold would intimidate small fractions of the two parties that could make them return to their folds in order to be able to participate in the 2014 general elections," he said.
Burhanuddin said the Democrat Party is a relatively new party and therefore it has no fractions.
He said the party also has a vested interest of not making the Golkar Party and PDIP not returning to their fold but would continue to be the participants of the elections.
"If the parliamentary threshold is agreed at less than five percent the medium-sized parties and the new party could still try to meet it including the new Nasional Demokrat (Nasdem) party which is a Golkar Party`s breakaway," he said.
(T.R024/H-YH/HAJM/F001)
Editor: Priyambodo RH
Copyright © ANTARA 2011
