"The President is tied, moreover his party is now also facing problems and so he will rely on formal power in the parliament and so I am doubtful that he will change the cabinet only for improving the government`s performance and whether he could do it by himself," Yudi Latif from the Reform Institute said here on Wednesday.
He said the crisis caused by corruption accusations against his Democrat Party would become an effective weapon to be used by other parties to pressure him.
"I even doubt if he will seek to improve his government`s performance or give more concessions to political parties to save his party and certainly retain his government until 2014 (the end of his term)," he said.
He said the cabinet would only work effectively for a year as in 2013 the focus of his government especially his ministers who come from political parties would certainly move to meeting the 2014 general elections.
"The 2013 atmosphere will be different and undoubtedly heat up to meet the 2014 elections. Moreover, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will no longer be eligible for reelection," he said.
He said President Yudhoyono certainly would not take a decision to reshuffle his cabinet without the influence of political parties that support his government.
"All have an interest and close to 2014 their interest will be more transparent," he said.
President Yudhoyono had assured that he would conduct a cabinet reshuffle before October 20. He said the decision was taken to improve the performance of his cabinet.
Meanwhile 17 out of 33 present ministerial posts are occupied by cadres from six political parties that support the government namely the Democrat Party, the Golkar Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). (*)
Editor: Kunto Wibisono
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