“We arrived at the last forecast after we looked at the realization in the second quarter and in July. We predict the 2020 growth will stay within the range of minus 1.1 percent to 0.2 percent,” she said at a press conference on the bill on the 2021 state budget and financial notes here on Friday.
The downward revision of the 2020 economic growth was based on the second-quarter growth, which contracted up to 5.32 percent year-on-year (yoy), she explained.
"This means that it rather moves in the negative direction or comes close to zero since we see the pressure in the second quarter is very deep," she said.
The deeper contraction in the second quarter sent a signal to the government to exercise caution in handling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and it will be managed properly in the third and fourth quarters, she added.
“We must really manage factors in the third quarter. We should not merely depend on the government although it plays a significant role in economic recovery,” she said.
The growth forecast was based on the estimate of household consumption growth, which fell deeper into decline to minus 1.3 percent to zero percent, she said.
Meanwhile, government consumption is projected to grow 2 to 4 percent this year.
Exports and imports have also come under pressure in the negative zone and are expected to contract 5.6-4.4 percent and 10.5-8.4 percent respectively. (INE)
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