"Third-quarter (growth) will contract, but it will remain positive, possibly in a range of 3.07-4 percent," he said at an online press conference on Monday.
Provinces in Java and Bali contribute 60 percent to the national gross domestic product (GDP), the minister noted. Therefore, the enforcement of emergency public activity restrictions (PPKM) will affect third-quarter economic growth, he stated.
Exports will be the main driver of the country's third-quarter growth on account of high demand for crude palm oil, coal, rubber, and aluminum, Hartarto predicted.
Meanwhile, Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) economist Yusuf Rendy has forecast that Indonesia’s economic growth will likely dip below 4 percent in the third quarter in the wake of the emergency restrictions in Java and Bali.
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"Third-quarter growth will most likely be far below second-quarter growth. We predict the economy will grow 4 percent in the second quarter. The growth will be lower in the third quarter," he said here on Monday.
The emergency public activity restrictions (PPKM) will no doubt restrict public activity and consumption, which will later have an impact on the national economic performance, he observed.
"Public consumption constitutes the biggest component of the GDP (national gross domestic product). So, when it is restricted, it will more or less affect economic performance," he elaborated. (INE)
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