"Regarding the atmosphere-ocean dynamics forecast, La Nina is predicted to move to its neutral phase in March 2023 and last until the first semester of 2023," BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati confirmed here on Sunday.
Meanwhile, in the second semester, there is a 50-60 percent chance that the neutral condition will move to the El Nino phase, she said.
She said that El Nino triggers reduced rainfall in regions throughout Indonesia that may lead to meteorological drought.
Therefore, Karnawati asked ministries/institutions, local governments, and the entire community to prepare for the possible impacts of the dry season, especially in areas that are drier than normal.
"These regions are predicted to experience an increased risk of meteorological drought, forest and land fires, and shortage of clean water," she said.
Karnawati said this situation requires comprehensive mitigation actions to anticipate the expected drier season than in the last three years.
She asked local governments and communities to fill lakes, reservoirs, retention basins, and other human-made water storage at the end of this rainy season.
Karnawati said the peak of the dry season this year is predicted in August.
According to her, 41 percent, or 289 season zones (ZOMs) will enter the dry season faster, 200 ZOMs, or 29 percent, will enter the dry season normally, and 95 ZOMs, or 14 percent, later than normal.
Regions that will enter the dry season earlier in April include Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and most of East Java.
While, most of Central Java, Yogyakarta, most of West Java, Banten, parts of southern Sumatra Island, and southern Papua, will enter the dry season in May.
Jakarta, some parts of Java Island, southern parts of Kalimantan island, most of South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Riau, West Sumatra, and northern Sulawesi Island will enter the dry season in June.
Related news: Drier dry season could spark land fires: BMKG
Related news: KSP underlines potential for El Nino-linked crop failure in 2023
Translator: Zubi M, Kenzu
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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