"We predict that this year, the global economic growth can reach 2.7 percent and increase to 2.8 percent in 2024. This global economic improvement is boosted, particularly by the economic growth of developing countries, which is predicted to be better," he stated.
Amid the global turmoil, the global economy is forecast to still grow, aided by growth from developing countries, such as India and the ASEAN-5, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo pointed out.
He noted that India had recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.8 percent in 2023, and the country's GDP was forecast to increase up to 6.2 percent in 2024. The increase in domestic demand in that country contributes to the said growth, he pointed out.
The BI governor drew attention to a similar trend occurring in ASEAN-5 countries, comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Those countries recorded a 5.1-percent growth in GDP in 2023, and the figure is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2024, he remarked.
Warjiyo also noted that China had recorded an economic growth of 5.5 percent in 2023, though its economy is only projected to grow 4.8 percent in 2024.
"China's economy also grows higher, as there is vast access to the economy following the COVID-19 pandemic, thereby pushing the domestic demand apart from improvement in their export performance," he elaborated.
Nonetheless, the economic growth of developed countries is forecast to be hindered on account of issues in the workforce, global financial market, as well as the US' ongoing debt ceiling issue.
He referred to the US' GDP growth rate that was only recorded at 0.9 percent, lower as compared to the figure clocked in 2022, at 2.1 percent.
Warjiyo also highlighted a similar condition in Europe that had only recorded 0.6 percent of growth in GDP, lower than the 3.6 percent that it had clocked in 2022.
However, the two regions' economies will grow better, as in 2024, the US is estimated to record GDP growth of 0.9 percent, while Europe's GDP will improve to 1.2 percent in 2024, the central bank governor noted.
He attributed the optimism towards global economic growth to a decline in inflation, especially in developing countries that tend to be quicker in resolving the inflation issue.
As for developed countries, the inflation rate decline takes a longer period of time, as they are grappling with workforce-related issues, he added.
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Translator: Bayu Saputra, Mecca Yumna
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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