"Claims about the exact date of the earthquake are false," said Nuraini Rahma Hanifa, the researcher, during an online talk show on Friday. "It could occur within the next five minutes or 100 years."
While earthquakes cannot be predicted precisely, a major earthquake, such as a megathrust, is possible in the future, as such events have been recorded in Indonesia since ancient times.
The location of the potential disaster is predicted to be in the area west of Sumatra Island to the south of Java Island, considering it is a meeting point between the Eurasian Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate, which is prone to seismic activity.
Hanifa explained that major earthquakes, such as the megathrust earthquake, follow a certain cycle: the larger the earthquake, the longer the cycle.
For example, the major earthquake that struck Aceh in 2004 had a cycle of up to 600 years. However, this cycle applies to a specific location. Each location has its own earthquake cycle.
"We can calculate the movement of the plates along with their large energy. But we do not know when it will be released. It could be released in small earthquakes or big earthquakes like in Aceh," she said.
Hanifa added that Java Island has the potential for an average plate shift of 6 centimeters per year, with the earthquake cycle predicted to occur every 400-600 years. The energy from plate shifts can be released gradually or sporadically.
To reduce the risk of disaster and save more lives, Hanifa urged all parties to participate in appropriate disaster mitigation efforts.
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Translator: Sean Filo M, Resinta Sulistiyandari
Editor: Anton Santoso
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