"Disasters are recurring events. To date, the Padang earthquake and the West Sumatra earthquake have a 50-100-year cycle," the head of BNPB, Lieutenant General Suharyanto, said at "The 3rd International Conference on Disaster Mitigation and Management (ICDMM) 2025" in Padang on Monday.
He then recalled that West Sumatra Province had experienced a significant earthquake in Padang, measuring 7.6 magnitude on September 30, 2009.
The quake, which occurred 16 years ago at a depth of 80 kilometers, caused 1,117 deaths and damaged approximately 300,000 homes.
"This is based on the data gathered by the BNPB. However, conditions on the ground may indicate a higher number, perhaps over 2,000 people," Suharyanto stated.
On the other side of the cycle, he acknowledged that some scientists in West Sumatra have stated that the Mentawai Fault has the potential for sudden energy release or is ready to release.
"But hopefully, it won't happen in our lifetime," he continued.
According to him, although science continues to advance, no one can predict with certainty when an earthquake will occur.
He noted that while Japan’s latest technology can predict earthquakes up to 30 seconds in advance, not every individual can save themselves in such a brief window.
Therefore, he emphasized the importance of mitigation, preparedness, and disaster management efforts.
He stated that West Sumatra can learn from the experience of the 2009 earthquake disaster, noting that knowledge gained since then continues to develop and should be passed on to the current generation, especially regarding preparedness.
"There are certainly shortcomings and weaknesses. These must be noted and kept in mind so that emergency response activities can improve over time," he pointed out.
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Translator: Resinta Sulistiyandari
Editor: Arie Novarina
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