The government assumption in Rp9,600 is hard to realize due..."Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Institute for Development of Economic and Finance (Indef) researcher Eko Listiyanto said the rupiah exchange rate could reach Rp10 thousand against the US dollar due to the depreciated trend of the rupiah.
"The Rp10,000 estimation is not an exeggeration. It will happen if the rupiah depreciation trend continues to take place," Eko said here on Monday.
He said the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is higher than Rp9,700 in recent days.
The rate will also be worsening by the price hike of subsidized fossil fuels. It has contributed to increasing inflation.
According to him, the Indonesian export has no good fundamental for rupiah`s rate. So the price hike could affect the rupiah value significantly.
"It is so hard to realize the target of the draft revised state budget to keep the rupiah stay on Rp9,600 per US dollar."
He said, the raw materials of Indonesian export commodities still come from foreign countries. So then, the national export depends on the situation of global economy.
Other Indef`s researcher, Enny Sri Hartati said her institute has predicted the rupiah rate to reach Rp9,750 to Rp9,800 per US dollar and it could be worse to Rp10,000 (more than the upper limit of the draft revised state budget set at Rp9,600).
"The government assumption in Rp9,600 is hard to realize due to the deficit in Indonesian trade balance. It has been occurring and it looks like it will not gain surplus," she said
Enny said, the government should make a stimulus policy to strengthen the domestic economical capacity especially in the production sector which involves many chances of employment.
"But the productive sector like industry and agriculture has not yet got any incentives or sufficient subsidies," she said.
(Reported by Rangga Pandu Asmara Jingga/A061/A014)
Editor: Priyambodo RH
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