"The overall growth for 2021 will lie in the range of 3.7 to 4.5 percent, as the first-quarter growth was recorded at minus 0.7 percent," Indrawati remarked during a webinar on the mid-year economic outlook here on Wednesday.
The government’s earlier growth projection lay in the range of 4.5 to 5.3 percent before the emergency PPKM was imposed due to a recent spike in COVID-19 cases.
The economic growth projection is influenced by the emergency PPKM scenario, the minister stated.
In the event of a moderate scenario in the country wherein the spread of COVID-19 is estimated to peak in the second week of July, the PPKM relaxation in the first week of August, and gradual recovery of economic activities in mid-August, then economic growth for 2021is projected to reach 4.5 percent, Indrawati noted.
Taking into account the moderate scenario, the growth forecast is pegged at 5.4 percent for the third quarter and 5.9 percent for the fourth quarter, according to the minister.
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"Hence, we are optimistic of the growth being above five percent in the third quarter and further increasing in the fourth quarter," Indrawati stated.
However, if emergency PPKM is enforced in case of a serious scenario wherein public mobility plunges by up to 50 percent, COVID-19 transmission peaks until the second week of July, daily rise in COVID-19 cases is higher, PPKM is relaxed in the third week of August, and the economic activities begin to recover gradually in September 2021, then the economic growth for 2021 is projected at 3.7 percent, the minister stated.
"If it (emergency PPKM) is to last until August and normalcy is to return until September, then the growth will be 4.6 percent for the third quarter," she noted.
The minister is upbeat about the second quarter growth hovering above seven percent since the emergency PPKM was enforced only in July.
"It seems that we are optimistic that it would reach above seven percent, and we hope that in the third and fourth weeks (of the emergency PPKM), it will remain above seven percent," she remarked.
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