"If we are capable of handling the pandemic by accelerating vaccination until the first quarter of 2022, then I believe that the 5.2-percent target is not out of reach," Basri noted during the Talking About the 2022 State Budget webinar here on Monday.
Vaccinations should be accelerated because if the vaccination rate does not reach 70 to 80 percent, there will be a risk of a W-Shaped recovery, or an up and down recovery, he explained.
"This is what differentiates countries such as Indonesia and the United States (US)," he said.
The US, Singapore, and Australia have a higher recovery power compared to Indonesia in 2022 since these countries have a vaccination rate of above 50 percent, 80 percent, and 80 percent, respectively, Basri observed.
"If we look at the economic growth projection of nations with extraordinary vaccine access, their recovery power in 2022 is higher than us. There are only Philippines and Thailand below Indonesia," he said.
If economic recovery becomes W-Shaped, then spending cuts cannot be done since the government will have to provide social protection aid, the economist added.
Moreover, if COVID-19 becomes widespread to the extent that it becomes essential to restrict economic activities, then the government will need to encourage the public to be resilient until herd immunity is achieved, he said.
"During this period, I believe that it is important for the fund allocation to be directed to three things: health, social aid, and support toward MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises)," he added.
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