The agency predicted the two phenomena, which would make the country even drier, in March 2023, Head of the BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati said in a press statement received here on Tuesday.
"It is predicted that in the second semester, there is an impact that leads to less rain intensity in some areas in Indonesia throughout the dry season period. Some areas in Indonesia are even predicted to experience rain intensity below normal level, or a drier condition compared to what occurs normally," she explained.
El Nino, which happens due to changes in sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is caused by temperature changes in the Indian Ocean, are expected to occur at the same time during this year's dry season, Karnawati said.
She referred to the drought in 2019, which was caused by a positive phase IOD.
Karnawati urged people to anticipate this year's dry season, considering that the two phenomena could exacerbate conditions.
She explained that the phenomenon observed in the month of May till date in the Pacific Ocean's waters could lead to El Nino in June, which could cause the region to feel warmer.
"Anomaly in Pacific Ocean's temperature is growing. Currently, it is at 0.8, close to 1. If it reaches 1, that means it is a moderate El Nino; currently, it is at 0.8, below 1, (means that) the El Nino is weak, however, there is a trend of escalation, that it would turn into moderate (level)," Karnawati elaborated.
This shows that the intensity has kept increasing, therefore, there is an 80 percent chance that the neutral state of waters will change to El Nino, she added.
Moreover, climate disturbance in the form of IOD, which will become positive from June to October, has also been observed in the Indian Ocean, she pointed out.
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Translator: Devi Nindy SR, Mecca Yumna
Editor: Azis Kurmala
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