Head of the Bali Climatology Station, Aminudin Ar Roniri, when confirmed here on Saturday, explained that the potential for extreme drought is not projected to spread because December 2025 is expected to be the start of the rainy season.
Based on observations as of Friday (Oct. 10), the Tejakula Sub-district in Buleleng has been placed under drought alert status after experiencing no rainfall for more than 60 days.
The extreme drought warning indicates a probability of rainfall below 20 millimeters per decade, with a likelihood exceeding 70 percent and a maximum rainfall index value of minus 2.
According to BMKG, Tejakula is currently facing a meteorological drought — a dry condition occurring over an extended period due to reduced rainfall or a prolonged dry season.
Meanwhile, Kubu Sub-district in Karangasem District has been classified under a drought alert category, with rainfall expected to remain below 20 millimeters per decade and a maximum rainfall index value between minus 1.50 and minus 1.99.
Roniri added that most areas in Bali, including Buleleng and Karangasem, are expected to enter the rainy season in December 2025.
“Before the rainy season begins, there will be light to moderate rain as a sign of its arrival,” he said.
The BMKG previously forecast that the peak of the rainy season in Bali would occur between January and February 2026. About 55 percent of Bali’s 20 seasonal zones are expected to reach their peak in February, while the remaining 45 percent — covering nine zones — will experience peak rainfall in January 2026.
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Translator: Dewa Ketut Sudiarta Wiguna, Katriana
Editor: M Razi Rahman
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