"According to BMKG projection, we will experience a long dry season peaking in August-September 2026 and ending only in November 2026," Nurofiq stated here on Wednesday, referring to Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
The minister said that rainfall during the seven dry months, starting in April 2026, is projected to be less than 100 mm per month, while rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean may trigger El Niño.
"Besides the long dry season, our rainfall will be at its lowest in 30 years," he said.
The prolonged dry season may lower water levels in peatlands, causing drought and increasing the risk of forest and land fires during critical periods.
Indonesia is not the only Southeast Asian country at risk. Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and parts of Myanmar, home to extensive peatlands, are also exposed to similar fire risks, the minister said.
Hence, Nurofiq urged ministry officials and other stakeholders to intensify their preparation and mitigation steps, starting from weather modification and forest fire vigilance in vulnerable provinces.
The provinces, he said, are Riau, Central Kalimantan, West Kalimantan, Jambi, South Sumatra, and South Kalimantan.
The ministry has also planned to intensify weather modification operations in these regions, implement water management measures in peatlands to anticipate El Niño effects, and carry out canal blocking to conserve water and mitigate the risk of forest fires.
"The weather modification operation has become a standard protocol in increasing rainfall and providing water to dry areas," Nurofiq noted.
Nurofiq said the government will also optimize village-level peatland monitoring to track water levels, enabling earlier intervention when levels drop to dangerous thresholds.
"Once the water level in the peatland reaches 80 cm or lower, we will authorize the BMKG and BNPB to conduct weather modification operations," the minister remarked, while also referring to the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB).
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Translator: Lintang Budiyanti P, Nabil Ihsan
Editor: Azis Kurmala
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