"Based on an analysis of ocean and atmospheric dynamics, weather conditions for the next six moths will be normal, but extreme weather might occur occasionally," said BMKG chief .
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics agency (BMKG) said Indonesia will experience normal weather conditions during the next six months, with only small possibilities of extreme weather occurrences.

"Based on an analysis of ocean and atmospheric dynamics, weather conditions for the next six moths will be normal, but extreme weather might occur occasionally," said BMKG Chief Sri Woro B Harjono here Thursday.

Indonesian citizen might have questions about recent floods and heavy rains, since BMKG predicted the weather would remain normal, though severe weather conditions can only be predicted three days beforehand, she said.

In predicting the weather, the public should keep in mind that climatic conditions cannot be partially separated from the other hemisphere and the atmospheric system is different elsewhere, Sri said.

Weather conditions in Indonesia are influenced by three factors, including La Nina reducing rainfall and El Nino, which adds rainfall in the eastern part of Indonesia Secondly, the sea surface temperature anomaly, where cold sea water temperatures reduce the rainfall, while the opposite occurs if the temperature is warm, in the mid-section of Indonesia.

And the third factor is the Dipole Mode that affects weather in Western parts of Indonesia where, if the result is negative, it will increase rainfall and if it is positive, it will reduce rainfall.

From March to May, temperatures on the surface of the central Pacific sea remain cold, so the weather tends to be normal.

BMKG also predicts a dry season will begin in February 2012 in parts of Sumatra, where most the region will experience the dry season starting in May.

The peak of the dry season is predicted to occur in June, July and August, and the drought will likely continue until October.

In addition, the nature of rainfall during the 2012 dry season in 194 Season Zone (ZOM), or 56.7 percent of the normal prediction, calls for normal weather and 119 ZOM (34.8 percent) calls for above normal weather, while below normal in 29 ZOM (8.5 percent).(*)

Editor: Heru Purwanto
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