"Going by the results of surveys so far, it seems the Democrat Party has no other choice but to continue its coalition with mid-sized pro-Muslim parties if it wishes to keep its chance to rule again," said Mochamad Yulianto, an analyst, here on Friday.
According to surveys, Islamic parties such as the United Development Party (PPP) and the Moon and Star Party (PBB) and pro-Muslim parties such as the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) will get about five percent of the votes in the legislative elections in April next year and so if they wish to have a share in power, they must build a coalition, he added.
The Democrat Party and Islamic parties or pro-Muslim parties still share a good chemistry because the Democrat Party has so far been able to show itself as being accommodative and accepting of pluralism, he noted.
Survey results have so far placed the Democrat Party in the third place, trailing behind the Golkar Party and the Indonesia Democratic Party - Struggle (PDIP) with a big margin.
As per data from the Indonesia Survey Study Institute (LPS) in September, the Democrat Party will only be able to win seven percent of the votes in Central Java, much lower than PDIP`s collection of 15.8 percent votes and the Golkar`s collection of about 11 percent votes, Yulianto said.
With the Democrat Party`s position in the 2014 elections not expected to be as strong as in 2004 or 2009, the party will certainly make a more attractive offer to Islamic or pro-Muslim parties to gain their support for its presidential candidate, he observed.
"I think the Democrat Party`s vote collection in 2014 will still be higher than that of Islamic or pro-Muslem parties and so it will remain `the leader'. Hence, if it wins the presidential elections later, the Democrat Party must give a bigger share of its power to coalition members," he added.
The Democrat Party will certainly drop the pro-Muslim Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) because the party has often clashed with the government, Yulianto noted.
The PKS has strongly rejected the government`s plans to raise fuel prices. During a recent court session, PKS`s former president, Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq, alleged that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono knew "Bunda Puteri", a mystery woman implicated in a beef import quota case. Luthfi is currently on trial in the case.
Angered by the statement, the President said Luthfi was lying.
A tie-up between the Democrat Party and the Gerindra Party is possible, but the chances of this seem very slim as the Gerindra recently showed an inclination to join the PDIP, Yulianto stated.
Reported by Achmad Zaenal M