Research expert at BRIN's Geological Disaster Research Center, Purna Sulastya Putra, stated on Wednesday that based on field findings and scientific calculations, tsunamis measuring magnitude 9 or higher have historically recurred in the region every 600 to 800 years.
"The last major tsunami in southern Java occurred around the 1500s. With an estimated 600-year cycle, the next one could occur in about 200 years," Putra remarked.
Although the exact timing cannot be predicted, he stated that the recurrence pattern offers a scientific basis for developing a more anticipatory mitigation system.
He then explained that major tsunamis in southern Java were recorded around 400, 1,000, and 1,800 years ago.
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These findings were based on traces of ancient tsunami deposits discovered during research in recent years in various locations, such as along the coasts of Lebak, Pangandaran, Kebumen, Gunung Kidul, and Lumajang, he revealed.
Putra remarked that the agency also employs a cultural approach, examining links between historical sites and potential past disasters to trace significant tsunami events.
"We are still gathering evidence of events from around one thousand years ago at more locations to confirm the recurrence pattern. However, preliminary indications point to a fairly consistent recurring cycle," he remarked.
Based on this research, Putra expressed hope that the government and the public would incorporate this risk into development and regional planning policies, especially along the southern coastal areas, currently experiencing economic and infrastructure development.
He reminded that with over 30 million people projected to live along the southern Java coast by 2030, this threat requires serious attention and mitigation efforts.
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Translator: M. Riezko Bima, Resinta Sulistiyandari
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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