Bank Indonesia said Thursday its Real Sales Index (RSI) is forecast to climb 2.7 percent year-on-year in August 2025.
“The performance is mainly supported by growth in spare parts and accessories, motor vehicle fuel, as well as cultural and recreational goods,” said Ramdan Denny Prakoso, the bank’s communications director.
On a monthly basis, sales are projected to dip 0.3 percent in August, an improvement from July’s 4.1 percent drop.
The food, beverage and tobacco group along with clothing helped soften August’s decline, the survey found.
In July, the RSI rose 4.7 percent year-on-year, rebounding from 1.3 percent growth in June.
That increase was driven by sales of spare parts, household equipment and stationery, according to the bank.
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The monthly contraction in July followed the end of the holiday and collective leave period linked to religious festivities and school breaks.
On prices, the bank said inflationary pressure over the next three months is expected to remain stable, but could climb in early 2026.
The General Price Expectation Index for October 2025 is pegged at 134.8, little changed from the previous 134.7.
For January 2026, however, the index is projected at 169.3, up from 163.4 in the prior survey.
The bank said the outlook reflects expectations of higher household consumption and possible seasonal demand in early 2026.
Analysts note the mixed picture, with solid annual growth tempered by weak monthly momentum.
Still, officials said the latest trends point to underlying resilience in domestic consumption, which accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s GDP.
Related news: BI survey estimates retail sales to increase in September
Translator: Rizka, Azis Kurmala
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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