BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani, during the “Climate Outlook 2026” press conference here on Tuesday, said the development was a lesson learned from various hydrometeorological disasters in recent years.
BMKG considers that the system will not only deliver weather forecast information, but also project potential impacts that may arise in affected areas.
“When BMKG informs that rain will occur in an area, whether of moderate, heavy, or very heavy intensity, the information will be further analyzed to assess possible impacts,” Fathani said.
He said BMKG is collaborating with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), the Ministry of Public Works, and the Geological Agency of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources in developing the system.
Impact analysis is carried out by combining BMKG weather forecasts with regional vulnerability maps, allowing potential disasters such as floods and landslides to be identified more specifically.
Fathani explained that BMKG currently has high-accuracy weather forecasting capability for a three to seven-day period ahead.
“Our current challenge is preparing more detailed regional vulnerability maps so that impact information can be conveyed accurately,” he said.
With the system, BMKG aims that early warnings in 2026 will no longer just include general information but will include information on locations potentially affected by disasters, supporting faster and more targeted mitigation measures.
The system is considered important after BMKG revealed that Indonesia’s annual rainfall in 2026 is projected to range between 1,500 and 4,000 millimeters, in line with climatological patterns commonly observed in previous periods.
Several regions are reported to have high rainfall potential, particularly along the western coast of Sumatra Island, which is influenced by relatively warm sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean as well as the orographic effects of the Bukit Barisan mountain range.
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Translator: Prasetyo, Kenzu
Editor: Azis Kurmala
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