"We predict that the inflation rate in September 2011 will not be as high as that in August 2011 which was 0.89 percent or almost 0.9 percent. We hope that inflation in September will be below that figure ," Hatta Rajasa said here on Monday.
He said he made the inflation prediction based on the fact that commodity prices had tended to drop. The price of gold for example had now dropped while sometimes in the past it increased by 0.3 percent.
In the meantime, food prices had also been relatively stable in the post-Lebaran period with some food prices even showing a downward trend, he said.
"I don`t see high food price volatility though some food commodities, particularly staple foods, contributed to inflation, yet it is not high," the coordinating minister for economic affairs said.
"The same applies to the core inflation figure. I hope it will not also be too high. It should not be like last month when the core inflation rate also increased," he said.
In this case, Hatta expressed his conviction that the country`s inflation target which was set at below 5 percent this year would be achieved.
In the meantime, Economic and Public Study Center Head of the University of Gajah Mada, Tony Prasetyantono predicted that inflation in September would remain within a range of 0.1-0.2 percent and 4.5 percent year-on-year.
During the October - November period inflation was still predicted to average 0.2 percent. The prediction was based on the central bank (Bank Indonesia/BI)`s benchmark rate which is expected to go down.
Yet, in December 2011, inflation is expected to increase in line with the increase in the public spending, as well as the increase in the government expenditure.
"The inflation rate at the end of December 2011 is predicted at the five percent range, even it could be below 5 percent," Tony said.
The inflation rate in the 2011 revised state budget is set at 5.65 percent.(*)
Editor: Heru Purwanto
Copyright © ANTARA 2011
