"The economic growth will reach the upper limit of 6.6 percent if the global economy is improving and the lower limit of 6.1 percent if Europe is still unable to get rid of the economic recession in 2013," KEN Chairman Khairul Tanjung said.
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - The National Economic Committee (KEN) has predicted that the country`s economy in 2013 will grow at a range of 6.1 - 6.6 percent.

"The economic growth will reach the upper limit of 6.6 percent if the global economy is improving and the lower limit of 6.1 percent if Europe is still unable to get rid of the economic recession in 2013," KEN Chairman Khairul Tanjung said here on Monday.

He said that next year`s economic growth was expected to boosted by domestic consumption and investment.

Household expenditure would contribute about 2.6 to 2.9 percent to the 2013 economic growth and investment 2.7 - 2.8 percent while

the contribution of the export sector was only expected to account for 0.0-2 percent.

"This means that Indonesia`s economy next year will rely on domestic strength," he added.

In the meantime the national economic growth in 2012 was predicted by KEN at 6.3 percent. This percentage is in the lower limit of previous prediction at between 6.3 and 6.7 percent made by KEN at the end of 2011.

Chairul said that at present Indonesia`s economy was still in the phase of its business cycle.

Historical data indicated that Indonesia`s economy usually recorded increases in a span of seven years. Indonesia entered its growth phase in 2009.

Thus, Indonesia is still in the economic growth phase and still has a big chance to post an economic growth increase ahead, he said.

Chairul said that KEN also predicted that inflation in 2013 would be at a range of 4.3-4.9 percent. Therefore, next year Bank Indonesia (BI/the central bank) is expected to maintain its benchmark rate at between 5.5 and 5.75 percent.

The value of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is predicted to gain strength at a range of Rp9,059 and Rp9,545.

Chairul said that KEN`s calculation showed that the fundamental value of the rupiah would be at below Rp9,500 level against the greenback.(*)

Editor: Heru Purwanto
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