“It is since the Prabowo-Sandi pair still has a high likelihood of winning,” senior analyst Ahmad Khoirul Umam stated during a telephonic interview here, Tuesday.
Umam noted that Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability exceeds that of their opponents, with the electability difference in the two presidential tickets being some 18 percent.
Nonetheless, the senior analyst pointed out that undecided and swing voters, who may alter their decision, constituted 24 percent of the electorate, the figure being more than the electoral gap between the presidential candidate pairs.
Participation bias too plays heavily on the vote outcome.
“A participation bias might arise if the high electability is not aligned with steps to ensure the mobility of voters to visit polling stations,” he cautioned.
However, the Prabowo-Sandi pair still stands a chance of winning the elections if they manage to reach out to the undecided and swing voter group and influence it to head to polling stations.
“However, in case the mass mobilization capacity stays comparatively unchanged, then presidential candidate pair number 01 will emerge victorious,” Umam stated.
Ultimately, the level of perseverance and self-discipline that each presidential candidate pair -- number 01 Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin and pair number 02 Subianto- Uno -- can demonstrate will be instrumental in the final results of the general elections scheduled on Apr 17.