If we expect the number of cases to drop today or tomorrow, then it is probably impossible. There needs to be a rise before a fall since changing people's behavior takes time
Jakarta (ANTARA) - Epidemiology expert from the University of Indonesia (UI) Muhammad N. Farid forecast the number of COVID-19 cases to decline during the August-September period after spiking significantly in June-July.

"We outlined a scenario based on the drop in the number of cases in February and the spike in June. If the increase in the number of the cases continues in June, then the Emergency PPKM did not really impact the people's behavior. Hence, there will probably be a spike that perhaps reached 25 thousand until 30 thousand per day in Jakarta," Farid noted during an online discussion on Tuesday, July 13.

Farid, who is also member of an expert analyst team from Citizens' Health Faculty of Universitas Indonesia (FKM UI), pointed out that based on the data derived from the start of the Emergency PPKM until July 12, experts have forecast a continued increase in the number of cases and will only drop during the August-September 2021 period.

"If we expect the number of cases to drop today or tomorrow, then it is probably impossible. There needs to be a rise before a fall since changing people's behavior takes time, and we have not looked at the people's behavior until now," he explained.

Farid emphasized that the practice of 3M -- Masking, hand washing, and social distancing -- or 5M --Masking, hand washing, social distancing, crowd avoiding, mobilization, and interaction restriction -- and 3T --Testing, Tracing, and Treatment -- in addition to vaccination were crucial to currently controlling the pandemic.

Based on a survey by FKM UI, Eijkman Foundation, CDC Indonesia, and Jakarta's Provincial Government conducted not long ago, the FKM UI team made a projection of the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta for the subsequent six months through the application of a compartment model approach.

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"Based on the trend, we can see in Jakarta two periods that we deemed important. The first is when there are drastic spikes (in the number of COVID cases) from the start of June until now," Farid stated.

The second period is in February 2021 when the number of cases drastically decreased. Based on the observation by UNICEF, the number of people applying the 3M protocol had reached 60 percent.

However, other surveys indicated that the number of people applying 3M had started to decrease now. Hence, after the emergence of the new virus variant, a decrease in the number of people applying 3M became the reason behind the current surge in the number of COVID-19 cases.

Furthermore, Farid noted that data from last week had tended to increase.

"The direction of the curve depends on us all," he remarked in connection with the handling of new cases in future.

To this end, citizens should follows health protocols diligently and consistently, so that the number of COVID-19 cases in Jakarta and other regions decrease.

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Translator: Lifa Mawaddah Putri, Fadhli Ru
Editor: Azis Kurmala
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