"Production will be lower as rain is continuing to fall until the end of this year disrupting fertilization and this will cause exports to drop," the general chairperson of the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters (AEKI), Suyanto Hiusein, said here on Saturday.
National coffee production next year is projected to be around 600,000 tons or lower than this year which also misses the target set at 640,000 tons.
The drop in the production is believed to also affect exports moreover demand would also be lower due to the impact of current crisis in the US and Europe.
If the volume of exports remains high it is strongly believed they are of lower quality and therefore cheaper, he said.
"For the high quality product it is also believed its price will also be under pressure due to the impact of the crisis," he said.
He said actually the pressure on price and volume had begun since several months ago and continued until the end of this year.
Although exports are down total trade is seen to rise this year because trade was good before, he said.
According to data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Indonesia`s coffee exports from November 1, 2010 to October 21, 2011 reached 6.05 million bags or 363,411 tons.
The volume is up 2.72 percent from the previous period recorded at 5.89 bags or 353,659 tons.
North Sumatra coffee exporter Saidul Alam said if coffee production drops next year the local price may remain strong.
"If the local price remains strong it will increase exporters` problems while buyers are hoping the price will be down due to weakening buying power as a result of current global crisis," he said.
(Uu.H-YH/HAJM)
Editor: Priyambodo RH
Copyright © ANTARA 2011
