Economic growth in draft state budget revision is 5.5 percent

The growth forecast is 5.5 percent in 2014, considering that the first-quarter growth is 5.2 percent.
Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Finance Minister Chatib Basri said the government will revise down the assumed economic growth rate in the draft revision of the 2014 state budget to 5.5 percent, from 6.0 percent previously.

"The growth forecast is 5.5 percent in 2014, considering that the first-quarter growth is 5.2 percent," he said here on Tuesday.

The economic growth is expected to start increasing in the second quarter, fueled by improving export performance after the Indonesian economy contracted earlier this year, he added.

"We hope our exports will increase in the second quarter after falling sharply in the first quarter. Hopefully, our exports will recover, while the other will remain more or less the same," he said.

He also assured that other macro assumptions, including oil lifting (oil sold), will also be revised down. The assumed oil lifting will be 818 thousand barrels per day because oil production will drop this year.

"The Cepu oil field will start producing in November, therefore, the realized oil lifting until March 31 almost reached 800 thousand barrels per day," he said.

He added that the assumed inflation rate, interest rate on the three-month state treasury notes and Indonesian crude price remain unchanged.

The assumed inflation rate remains unchanged at 5.5 percent and so does interest rate on the three-month state treasury notes. It seems the inflation rate will be lower than the year-to-date inflation rate, he pointed out.

The rupiahs exchange rate will not be much different from the governments forecast of Rp11,500 per dollar, he noted.

"To be sure, it will be less than Rp12,000. The target range is Rp11,500-Rp12,000 per dollar," he said.(*)

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