“If everything gets better, the third quarter should improveJakarta (ANTARA) - Community mobility became the key to Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2021, so the implementation of Level 3 and 4 public activity restrictions (PPKM) would certainly have an effect, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) has stated. “If you look at the trend in the third quarter, the keywords are mobility and activity. If we enter PPKM levels 3 and 4, how big is the impact? There must be an impact, but it cannot be predicted," BPS head Margo Yuwono said at a press conference in Jakarta, Thursday.
However, Margo has still not provided a detailed explanation on the impact of PPKM Levels 3 and 4 on economic growth in the next quarter III-2021.
Based on the pattern, if all economic indicators improve, the economy in the third quarter of 2021 should also improve. But the improvement in these indicators also depends on people's mobility.
“If everything gets better, the third quarter should improve. If all the patterns are good. But back to mobility and community activities. If it is limited then the pattern can be different,” he explained.
Meanwhile, the government's stimulus through the national economic recovery (PEN) program will boost economic growth because it enables business actors to survive amid the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, he said.
"It has a positive impact, but how big is it? This needs to be studied in-depth," he said.
The government continued to coordinate with various parties to create better healthcare to suppress COVID-19 cases and help people's recover their mobility, Margo said.
“The improved activity means that the economy will also grow. The key is how to handle health, if the handling is successful, activities grow, the economy will definitely grow,” he said.
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According to information, the Indonesian economy managed to grow positively, reaching 7.07 percent (yoy) and 3.31 percent (qtq) in the second quarter of 2021, BPS noted.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) had, at the end of June 2021, expressed confidence that Indonesia would emerge from the negative economic growth trend, observed since the second quarter of 2020, in the second quarter of 2021.
The President said, he was optimistic that economic growth would touch 7 percent in the second quarter of 2021, after contracting to minus 0.74 percent in the previous quarter.
His confidence rested on improvements in several economic indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry, which was recorded at 55.3 in May 2021, the positive movement of the consumer confidence index and retail sales, and soaring exports, which grew 58 percent in May 2021 to US$16.6 billion, the President said.
"We are still optimistic that it (the economy) will grow in the second quarter of 2021, God willing, around 7 percent," the President remarked.
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Translator: Astrid F, Azis Kurmala
Editor: Suharto
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