Based on unofficial quick counts on the results of the April 9 legislative election, Islamic parties collectively won about 32 percent of the votes, exceeding the 25 percent presidential threshold as required by the law for a political party or a group of political parties to nominate a presidential candidate.
According to Islamic political observer Dr Yon Mchmudi of the University of Indonesia, Islamic parties have the chance to form a strong coalition and to nominate a presidential candidate for the July 9, 2014 presidential race.
"The Islamic-based parties such as the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the United Development Party (PPP) have the potential to become an alternative force," he said on Friday.
Yon Machmudi said the coalition of the religious-based parties could serve as an alternative force because they had a collective vote gain of about 32 percent. After all, they all have relatively similar ideologies.
The quick count by the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) after Wednesdays elections placed the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) in the first position, winning 19.77 percent of the votes, the Golkar Party in the second place with 14.61 percent, the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) in the third place with 11.80 percent and the ruling Democratic Party (PD) in the fourth place with 9.73 percent of the votes.
The fifth position was taken by the National Awakening Party (PKB) securing 9.07 percent of the votes, followed by the National Mandate Party (PAN) in the sixth position (7.47 percent), the United Development Party (PPP) in the seventh place (7.08 percent), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in the eighth place with 6.61 percent, the National Democrat Party (NasDem) 6.77 percent, the Peoples Conscience Party (Hanura) 5.26 percent, the Crescent and Star Party (PBB) 1.36 percent; and the Indonesian Prosperous and Unity Party (PKPI) 0.97 percent.
However, according to Yon Machmudi, nationalist parties surely also want to cooperate and coalesce with the Islamic-based political parties to build a solid foundation of their power. This is a choice. If they are compartmentalized, then a coalition of Islamic-based parties could not be realized.
After all, according to Political Observer Dr Syarief Makhya MP of the University of Lampung, the formation of the coalitions in the next presidential election inclined to be based on rational considerations, namely real support and pragmatism rather than on ideology.
"So, the competition in the next presidential race will tend to be among nationalist presidential candidates. Islamic-based parties such as PPP, PKB, PAN and the PKS will only become coalition members. They can only bargain for a vice presidential candidate or ministerial posts," he added.
Syarief said Islamic-based parties are likely to face difficulties in forming a coalition to nominate a presidential candidate because they still have differing political attitudes while the countrys Muslims on the one hand have adopted inclusive attitude.
The other problem is that forming a coalition is not only a matter of meeting the presidential threshold to nominate a presidential candidate but also a matter of building a strong government.
Therefore, he predicted that political parties will base their considerations on pragmatism and realistic support rather than on ideology in forming a coalition.
"Pragmatism will become the basis of political parties in considering a coalition after the unofficial results of quick counts on last Wednesdays legislative election map out their vote gains," Syarief Makhya said on Sunday.
He said that the result of the quick counts indicated that only the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) had the possibility to nominate its own presidential candidate. This is on condition that the 19 percent of votes it gained in the legislative elections could earn it at least 116 seats of the 560 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR).
"If the votes it has gained in the legislative elections could not secure a minimum number of seats as required by the presidential threshold of 20 percent, PDIP will be required to set up a coalition with other political parties," Syarief Makhya said.
He predicted that there were three presidential candidates who would form coalitions before they could run for the presidential race next July 9, 2014.
The three presidential candidates are popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, of the PDIP, Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) and Aburizal Bakri, who is intimately called Ical, of the Golkar Party.
In the meantime, the Freedom Foundation has predicted that PDIP will likely pick up Golkar figure Jusuf Kalla or Akbar Tanjung as the running mate for its presidential candidate Jokowi.
"The likelihood of the nomination will largely depend on Megawati Soekarnoputri, the general chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP)," Darmawan Sinayangsah, the Freedom Foundation director, told a discussion on "Weighing Javanese-Non-Javanese Presidential-Vice Presidential Candidates" in Jakarta on Sunday.
According to Darmawan, the results of a survey conducted by the Freedom Foundation across the country indicated that 40.6 percent of 1,090 respondents favored the Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla pair-up while 34.1 percent opted to the Jokowi-Akbar Tanjung pair.
The survey was conducted from March 31 to April 7, 2014 with an accuracy level of about 95 percent. About 24.0 percent respondents chose the pair if Jokowi ran together with General Chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) Hatta Rajasa as compared to 11.5 percent who voted for the Jokowi- Pramono Edhie pair.
Pramono Edhie is a former chief of staff of the Indonesian Army.
According to Damawan, the two Golkars prominent figures (Jusuf Kalla or JK and Akbar Tanjung), have their respective superiority and weaknesses.
Kalla is a very popular figure as a politician and a businessman. Kalla will be supported by the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) if he is nominated as a vice presidential candidate.
Jusuf Kalla also has the experience as a vice president.
"However, JK was once nominated as a presidential candidate in the 2009 presidential race. This will degrade his image if he is nominated again as a vice presidential candidate," he said.
Akbar Tanjung, on the other hand, is a senior politician who had developed his career through various university students organizations, youth organizations, and political parties and through several ministerial posts.
"Akbar with his Islamic credential has the potential to become Jokowis running mate and to serve as the dark horse of the Golkar Party," he said.
He said that with the Islamic credential Akbar has the potential to withdraw the wagons of both nationalists and Muslim supporters.
Darmawan explained that Akbar was also known as a pluralist figure of the Cipayung group as well as of other sociopolitical networks.
The Cipayung Group is a group composed of different religious and nationalist students organizations such as the Indonesian Christian Students Movement (GMKI), the Indonesian Nationalist Students Movement (GMNI), the Indonesian Muslim Students Association (HMI), the Indonesian Muslim Students Movement (PMII) and the Indonesian Catholic Students Association (PMKRI).
(A014/H-YH)
Reporter: Andi Abdussalam
Editor: Jafar M Sidik
Copyright © ANTARA 2014
