Jakarta (ANTARA) - Chief economist of state lender Bank Mandiri Andry Asmoro has estimated the national economy to grow by 5.14 percent in 2020, spurred by consumption and investment.

"We expect the Indonesian economy to grow by 5.14 percent in 2020 supported by maintained household consumption growth and improved gross fixed capital formation (PMTB) growth," he stated at a media gathering on the economic and market outlook 2020 at Mandiri Plaza in Jakarta on Thursday.

Asmoro remarked that both growth improved owing to the end of the national political year and the formulation of policy packages in connection with the boosting competitiveness and domestic investment climate, such as the Omnibus Law.

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However, he stated that the US-China trade war that has an impact on the falling commodity prices continues to be a risk factor for the national economy in 2020.

He also projected that the national inflation rate will reach 3.54 percent by 2020 owing to adjustments to several government-regulated prices.

In the meantime, the rupiah exchange rate will slightly depreciate to Rp14,296 per US dollar by the end of 2020, along with the slightly widening current account deficit to 2.88 percent of the GDP owing to increased economic activity in the real sector and investment.

Furthermore, a positive factor that will be a driver of economic growth in 2020 is the impact of monetary policy transmission, such as a decrease in the benchmark interest rate and an increase in loan to value (LTV), which is expected to begin in 2020.

"In addition, an increasingly effective fiscal policy -- through improving quality of spending -- that has a high multiplier effect is also needed to encourage economic growth," Asmoro added.

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Translator: Yuni Arisandy Sinaga
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
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